Probabilities for at least one major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following United States coastal areas:

1.    Entire U.S. coastline - 48% (average for last century is 52%)

2.    U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 28% (average for last century is 31%)

3.    Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 28% (average for last century is 30%)

Abstract (excerpt)

We expect current neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions to persist or perhaps transition to weak El Niño conditions by the most active portion of this year?s hurricane season (August-October). If El Niño conditions develop, it would tend to increase the levels of vertical wind shear and decrease the levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. Another reason for our forecast reduction is due to the persistence of anomalously cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Cooler waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are less conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season. Another factor in our forecast reduction is the stronger-than-normal Azores High during April-May. Stronger high pressure typically results in stronger trade winds that are commonly associated with less active hurricane seasons.